A report released this week from a state-run economic think tank in Moscow has warned Russia is teetering on the brink of a severe economic downturn due to a triple threat of financial indicators that could trigger a banking crisis.
Stemming from various factors exacerbated by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the Kremlin-linked Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMASF) is warning of a “resonance” of deleterious economic indicators. A combination of increased bad debts, early signs of a bank run by depositors, and increased pressure on both businesses and consumers in the form of higher interest rates.
“A systemic banking crisis, as defined by CMASF, would involve at least one of three conditions: non-performing loans exceeding 10% of total banking assets, a significant withdrawal of funds by depositors, or large-scale bank recapitalizations exceeding 2% of the country’s GDP,” the Moscow Times reported this week.
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